Monday, May 2, 2011

Can I please get 2 starters and a lead-off man?

The way I look at it right now, the Royals are probably about 2 quality starting pitchers and a true lead-off man away from being a contender in the AL Central.  I’m only willing to entertain the fantasy that we may even be THAT close to contending because the Central, itself, looks awful pathetic to this point.  Cleveland is playing well, but they’re a team that was projected to win about 65 games this year.  It’s entirely possible that they could fall back.  Everybody outside of the Indians and Royals range from “below .500” to “WELL-BELOW .500.”

The following AL offensive rankings for the Royals are staggering to me:

Runs (the most important category):  2nd
Batting average:  1st
OBP:  2nd
Hits:  1st
OPS:  4th
SLG:  4th
Walks:  4th

The SLG and OPS are most affected by the fact that the Royals are only 9th in the AL in dongs—not altogether shocking, considering the park they play in and the way the team is built.  On the other hand, they ALMOST make up for it by the shockingly high number of doubles they’ve been hitting.  They currently lead the AL in that category.

When Aviles and Betemit are in the lineup together right now, the Royals have about as effective of a 6-man offensive combination as anyone in baseball AT THE MOMENT.  I’m not silly enough to think it will last forever, but Aviles, Cabrera, Gordon, Butler, Francoeur and Betemit are collectively exceeding expectations to this point.  That includes the fact that Aviles got off to a HORRENDOUS start.  Since limping out to a line of .107/.188/.321 by April 12, Aviles has raised it to .250/.280/.539 in less than 3 weeks.  He’s hitting .317 over that time with a .707 SLG (4 dongs, 4 doubles).

How’s this for a stat:  Billy Butler is doing just fine.  Hitting .320/.438/.490 with three dongs.  And yet, he’s merely in 6th place on this team for RBIs, behind each of the other 5 offensive players who are getting it done.  If Billy Butler is your 6th-best run producer, you’re probably getting some darn fine offense.

The problem, of course, is that we’re getting very little offense from the middle infield and the catcher spot.  I can live with whatever Escobar gives us, because every damn night, he saves at least a run with his glove.  But as Ned Yost says, it’s awfully hard to hide three ineffective offensive players in your lineup.  I would expect the “successful six” to come back towards average more than I expect the “terrible trifecta” to move upwards.  So unless we can find an offensive solution, I don’t expect us to remain a top-tier offensive team for long.

More than anything, a true leadoff man would be nice.

The other side of the Royals’ coin is that, as much as the offense has been better than expected, the starting pitching has been right about where we thought it would be.  And that’s not good.  The Royals’ pitching staff as a whole (which includes the lights-out play from a portion of the bullpen) currently ranks 11th in ERA, 13th in batting average allowed, and has given up the 4th-most runs in the league.

I don’t know how much more the pen can do.  We need starting help, and soon.

Danny Duffy is currently leading the Pacific Coast league with a 0.90 ERA in 4 starts.  He’s struck out 24 batters, against just 4 walks, in 20 innings pitched.  Mike Montgomery and Everett Teaford join him in the top 15 of every meaningful category in the league.

We have help a-waitin’.  How long until we decide we’re a player in this division, and can use a little of that help right now?














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