Pacquiao-Marquez III, Mayweather on Line One

Boxing Pay-Per-Views so often turn out to be massive disappointments—none more obvious than the recent Mayweather-Ortiz debacle that ended with controversial cheap shots.  I knew, absolutely KNEW, that Pacquiao-Marquez III stood no chance of disappointing, and I was right.

The risk was that what a lot of professionals were saying about Marquez would be true—that he’d be past his prime, and that he couldn’t handle the extra weight it would take to get up to welterweight, and that Manny would walk over him.  That all turned out to be complete nonsense.

I never thought the size would be an issue, and in fact, Marquez took much better care to put on real muscle this time than he did when he fought Mayweather at welter a couple years back.  It was almost as if he had returning to lightweight on his mind back then, rather than becoming a true welter.  Pacquiao has always been basically a lightweight choosing to fight up in size anyway.  Marquez, to me, looked much, much bigger than Manny in the upper body, and in fact, outweighed Pacquiao by 2 pounds on the unofficial fight night scale (most of Manny’s weight gain over the years has been in added muscle his massive, tree trunk legs).

It was simply a case of two men whose styles all but cancel each other out.  Manny is the consummate aggressor, and Marquez is the expert counterpuncher.  People have talked about Manny looking more confused than usual in this fight.  I don’t think it was confusion at all—it’s just that he’s eaten a ton of Marquez leather over the past seven years, and he knows exactly what’s NOT going to work.  So he took more time and more caution in deciding when to attack.

At the end of the day, judges (rightly, in my view) favor the aggressor in close rounds.  When in doubt, I think you should ALWAYS give the nod to the guy forcing the action.  When the counterpuncher has clearly landed the more clean, effective blows, give him the round.  But the benefit of the doubt SHOULD go to the guy who makes the fight.  Manny out-threw and out-landed Marquez, and short of knock downs, that’s going to give him most of the close rounds.

I love Marquez—I’m a fan, I’ll always be a fan.  But I think if he goes back and watches it again, he’ll stop whining about getting robbed.  I thought he might have won four rounds, MAYBE five.  I won’t argue long with someone who gave him six and the draw.  You would be very hard-pressed to find seven Marquez rounds.  He has no right to complain.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE FUTURE….Actually, I think this couldn’t have worked out any better, in terms of the possibilities of FINALLY putting together the fight that EVERYONE wants to see—Mayweather-Pacquiao.  Manny’s relatively pedestrian performance has to at least ease some of Floyd’s fears of fighting him.  Floyd is more interested in protecting his unbeaten record than anything else, which is the only reason he’s ducked Pacquiao this long.

A lot of the experts took Manny’s performance on Saturday as proof that he is not in Mayweather’s class—after all, Floyd had absolutely no trouble in dispensing with Marquez, and Manny has struggled toe-to-toe with him three times now.  On the one hand, I understand that argument, and you’d have to make Floyd the slight favorite because he’s an even better defensive fighter and counterpuncher than Marquez.

ON THE OTHER HAND…by the same logic, Pacquiao has actually looked BETTER than Floyd against their other three recent common opponents.  Floyd won a competitive split decision against Oscar De La Hoya, while Manny nearly killed him.  Floyd scored a late knockout win over Ricky Hatton—Manny put him to sleep in 2 rounds.  And Manny didn’t lose a second (except for a bogus fake knockdown called late in the fight) against Shane Mosley, while Floyd nearly got knocked out by Shane in the 2^nd round before recovering to win a blowout decision.

STYLES MAKE FIGHTS.  Plain and simple.  There’s something about Manny and Marquez that make them a tough match for each other.  It would be that way if they fought 10 times.  It takes nothing away from the fact that Floyd and Manny would STILL be an extremely compelling match-up in their own right.

Manny would force Floyd to fight more than he ever has before.  He may well knock Manny senseless, but it would be a FIGHT—an absolute war.  Floyd’s never had a war.  It would be fun to see how he reacts to getting into one.

Rest in Peace, Smokin' Joe

Last night, the sporting world lost one of its all-time greats with the passing of Joe Frazier, who had been suffering with liver cancer.  Joe fought in the golden age of heavyweights, which was the late 1960s through the 1970s.  It sounds like he was able to have peace late in his life, which is good to know.

Joe lived most of his retirement as an angry and bitter man who was unable to let certain parts of his past go.  Specifically, he couldn’t let go of the way he was shamefully treated by Muhammad Ali.  After Ali was stripped of his titles for dodging the draft, it was Frazier who came to his defense to convince the boxing world that Ali deserved another chance.  After Ali (foolishly) squandered his fortune away, it was Joe that loaned “the Greatest” enough to get by until he got back on his feet.

And then when the fight was finally made, Ali turned to the most ruthless and personal forms of insults to promote the fight, and it was completely unnecessary.  Everyone wanted to see the fight anyway—half the country wanted to see the draft dodger knocked out, and the other half cheered him as a hero of the hippie causes and black power.  But he verbally reduced Joe to the role of the “Uncle Tom,” and the uneducated backwoods N-word. 

It initially backfired.  Joe took it to heart and unleashed all of his fury on Ali in their first epic battle in 1971, which he won by unanimous decision, nearly knocking Ali out in the 15th.  But the fight nearly killed both men, and Joe was the worse for wear of the two.  He truly was never the same.  He was beaten to a pulp by a young George Foreman in 1973, and lost his rematch to Ali not long after.

1975 saw the third installment of the Ali-Frazier rivalry, and it was easily the most brutal of the three fights.  Joe was very much in it till the end, but both men were near the point of death.  Ali was clearly inflicting the most punishment in the later rounds, and Frazier’s trainer, Eddie Futch, refused to let his man fight the 15^th and final round.

I CONTEND TO THIS DAY that Futch should have let him continue.  Ali had demeaned him and reduced him to garbage in the eyes of many, when all he ever did was try to help his friend out.  Frazier should have been allowed to have that last round to go out there and knock Ali out, or die trying.  He deserved that right as a warrior.

But the stoppage stayed with him for the rest of his life, and bitterness consumed him.  In 1996, Joe commented on watching a shaking and quivering Ali light the Olympic torch for the Atlanta games.  Frazier said that if he had been there, he would have just pushed Ali into the fire.

But from what I understand, within the last year or so, he forgave Ali.  I only hope he died in peace.

God bless you, Joe.

Bye Bye Mizzou

I really hate to say all of this, because Kansas and Missouri have one of the longest standing rivalries in the country—goes back to a time where some of the fans in the stands were old enough to remember people who were killed in the border wars.  If KU and Missouri do go their separate conference ways, it will truly be a sad, sad day.  Some of my best friends are Mizzou faithful, and getting the chance to banter back and forth about the rivalry is something I truly look forward to every year.

But I’ve come to the conclusion that it probably has to happen.  I don’t blame Missouri for annually looking towards greener conference pastures.  They are blessed to have landed in a state where two large metros bloomed to their east and west, and one in which no second major athletics player ever materialized.  They continue to be in a better situation to be successful in athletics than nearly any school in the union, and they SHOULD feel like they have a valuable commodity.

But as some have questioned how the Big 12 conference can go on if Missouri leaves, I think the question that has to be asked is how can conference stability be gained if Missouri STAYS.

Now, if the “super conference” model ever really does come to pass, with the four 16-team leagues going off on their own to have their own college football empire and all, I think we’re going to all look foolish for ever trying to keep the Big 12 together in the first place.  In that sense, and in the sense that Missouri has real, natural options, I seriously would hold no animosity towards Missouri if they were to leave at this time.  Perhaps they’d be the only wise one in the bunch—at least amongst those with options (and I really don’t know if anyone else DOES at this point, although I suspect that OU could call the SEC today and be admitted ahead of Missouri, if they were willing to leave Oklahoma State behind).

But if the league goes forward WITH Missouri, you know that this cycle will never end.  Every year, it’s going to come up again.  Where does Missouri want to go now?  If they finally catch on somewhere else, will everybody be scrambling to find a new home (again)?

I hope the reports of Missouri’s offer from the SEC are real, and frankly, I kind of hope they take it ASAP.  Time for the remaining eight to sign on four committed replacements to get the league back to 12.  If the era of the super conference comes, and Kansas gets left out in the cold later, so be it.  In a sense, we’ll be no worse off than we are today.  Football is already sub-par, and it will take a lot more than an inferior conference alignment to kill what KU has in basketball.

In a sense, Kansas has already thrived in an inferior basketball league.  Not that Big 12 basketball is awful, by any means.  But any league that allows one school to win seven conference basketball titles in a row (and nine of the last 10) can’t REALLY be taking the sport all that seriously, anyway.

Time to roll the dice with those who want to be here, and move on.

The Power of One Pitcher

The Royals might be looking to trade to get a #1 or #2 type pitcher, and you have to ask the question what difference that one pitcher could make for a team currently sitting at 71-89.  Well, when you break it down……quite a bit, actually.

You have to start with the premise that the Royals are a pretty GOOD offensive team.  They are, and they are getting better all the time.  They appear set to finish 6^th in the AL in runs scored at 726—and their run differential is actually good for 8^th in the league, despite their 11^th-place record overall in the AL.  They actually have the second-best run differential in the Central at -28.  Despite their respective 80 and 78 wins, both Cleveland and Chicago have a run differential of -52.  For how the Royals score in relation to the runs they give up, they SHOULD have more wins than they do.  The Baseball-reference.com Pythagorean W-L formula says they should be 77-83 right now—6 more wins than they actually were able to achieve.

So you can start to hypothesize that one or two disproportionately bad starters just MIGHT be throwing a monkey wrench into what might otherwise be a .500 or so ball club (give or take a few games).

AND YOU WOULD BE RIGHT

The Royals dedicated a combined 44 starts to Kyle Davies and Jeff Francis this year.  Now, Francis wasn’t awful, I guess—but aside from rookie Danny Duffy, he had the worst ERA of any Royals starter with at least 10 starts this year (4.8).

In the 44 starts (over 25% of the season) by Davies and Francis, the Royals were a combined 13-31. 

That means in the 116 starts so far by ALL OTHER PITCHERS, the Royals are 58-58—a .500 ball club. 

Let’s break it down further.  Danny Duffy made his major league debut this season, and got 20 starts.  Let’s be honest….he had some nice work, but the overall majority of his first stint in the Majors was sub-par.  WE KNOW THE TALENT IS THERE, and we have every reason to expect improvement.  But the Royals were just 6-14 in the games started by Duffy.

SO….minus the 64 starts made by Francis, Davies and Duffy, the Royals had 96 games started by other pitchers, and in those 96 games the Royals are 52-44. 

THE THREE MEN WHO ABSOLUTELY SHOULD BE IN THE ROTATION NEXT YEAR are Chen, Paulino and Hochevar.  Those three combined for 75 starts this year, and the Royals were 41-34 in those starts.  That includes the 9-11 the Royals went when Paulino was on the hill, but he suffered a little from some poor run support earlier in the year.  He had some nice support late, which came close to evening it up for him on the season (not quite, but close).

SO LET’S MAKE SOME CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS FOR NEXT YEAR….. 

The one guy that might be available for trade that appears to be the best option available is James Shields, at least according to Buster Olney and others.  Can the Royals get him?  Who knows, but let’s assume he’s THE GUY the Royals get.

The Rays are 20-13 in the 33 games Shields has started this year, and that’s with a far WORSE run support than the average Royals game.  The Royals average 4.54 runs per game, while Shields got only 3.91 a game from the Rays this year—about two-thirds of a run less a game.  So it’s reasonable to believe that the Royals may have a similar record (or better) with Shields pitching for Kansas City as what he got for Tampa.

So let’s assume he enters the rotation, and the Royals duplicate the 20-13 in his starts from a year ago.  Again, I think that’s conservative, because he’s shown himself to be extremely durable, AND the Royals score better than the Rays did for Shields.  But we’ll leave it at that.

And let’s make some assumptions about Chen, Paulino and Hochevar.  Hoch, I’m going to leave exactly the same.  If he pitches like he did in the 2^nd half of 2011, he might be a 17 or 18 game winner by himself, but we’ll assume no improvement.  We’ll also give Chen the exact same 15-9 in 24 starts, because he will be 34, and there’s always a chance he could end up on the DL again.

As for Paulino, I’m going to cheat him up a little to 30 starts (since we’ll have him from the beginning of the year), and have the Royals go 15-15 in games he starts.  I think this is reasonable to expect, and maybe we should expect just a bit more.  He had some pretty bad run support for the first half of his time here.  The better support towards the end helped even it out some, but he still finished about a quarter of a run worse for run support than the average Royals game.

So here you go for the top 4 in your rotation, with the projected number of starts, and the Royals’ record in their games (not their win-loss records, but the Royals’ records in games they start):

Shields:  33, 20-13

Chen:  24, 15-9

Hochevar:  31, 17-14

Paulino:  30, 15-15

Totals:  118 games, 67 wins, 51 losses.

That leaves 44 starts to be covered by your 5^th starter (Duffy?), and whoever gets spot starts to fill in for Chen on the DL and what not.

FOR THE ROYALS TO HIT .500….the Royals would only need to go 14-30 in the 44 starts by Duffy and the spot starters for the club to be .500. 

BRINGING THAT BACK AROUND TO THE BEGINNING….you’ll recall that Davies and Francis COMBINED to go 13-31 in 44 starts this year, or almost exactly the same number that Duffy and spot starters would have to go to make the Royals a .400 team in 2012.  In other words, they don’t have to be that good for the Royals to hit .500.  You could add Shields and bring Davies and Francis back, give them 44 starts again, and you’re probably a .500 team.

If Duffy makes even a SMALL improvement in 2012, the Royals could easily sneak several games above .500.

It’s all so elementary, when you break it down.

Ah, When Mike was Healthy.......

With the forthcoming promotion of Moose Tacos, who (if he stayed with the Royals for his career, which he will not, so this is a moot point) has the potential to hit for more power than any Royal in history, I’ve been playing around with a few stats over lunch.

Man, is it easy to forget how good of a hitter Mike Sweeney was, before he was reduced to a huddled mass on a gurney.  In fact, this may sound ludicrous, but from 1999 to 2005 (his only quasi-healthy-to-healthy seasons), he had the most offensively-productive seven-year period in the history of Royals’ baseball.

Granted, he wasn’t even completely healthy during that period, missing about 30 games a year on average.  But the MOST productive offensive player (George Brett) was also prone to the same kind of health outages throughout his career.

I scoured Brett’s stats to see if I could find what his MOST productive seven-year period was.  There’s some room for debate in there—Brett had periods where he hit for great average, but not much in terms of power, for example.  BY A SLIM MARGIN, I picked the period starting in 1982 over the period starting in 1980.  The period starting in 1982 was his best “power” period of seven seasons, with five of his top eight dong years, three of his top seven OPS years (including two of his top three), and four of his top nine RBI years.  Brett’s batting average for that period is nearly identical to his career average (.304, compared to .305 for his career).  I think it’s a fair period to look at.

Plus, it just so happens that Brett and Sweeney had nearly an identical number of games (922 and 918, respectively) and at bats (3,400 and 3,496) for the periods, so it works out very nicely.

BY THE WAY….I’d like to apologize to all of my stat geek friends.  I did not calculate OBP for this model.  I thought about doing it, but didn’t have the time.  Besides, I eye-balled it, and my educated guess is that Brett trended slightly higher, but not by a whole lot.  Brett’s OBP for the period floated between a low of .344 and a high of .436, while Sweeney went between .347 and .417.  All solidly within the range of what you’d take for guys hitting with the kind of power they did in their respective 7-year periods.

OK, so here’s your comparison.  Enjoy!

Mike Sweeney, 1999 through 2005 (age 25 to 31)

Games = 918

Hits = 1095

Batting Average = .313

Homeruns = 163

Doubles = 231

Triples = 4

Slugging Percentage = .521

RBIs = 697

George Brett, 1982 through 1988 (age 29 to 35)

Games = 922

Hits = 1033

Batting Average = .304

Homeruns = 151

Doubles = 217

Triples = 28

Slugging Percentage = .517

RBIs = 610

Give Wilson a Chance

Rany’s article from June 2 was very entertaining.  Provided some info that supported his thoughts that Gordon is for real and Francoeur’s resurgence is not.  Also pointed out that, at least to this point in the season, Gordon is the undisputed best left fielder in the American League.  In a sense, that’s a back-handed compliment, because the quality of left fielders in the AL is not what it once was.  NEVERTHELESS….if you would have told me 5 years ago that, in 2011, the Royals would have exactly one player on their roster who was the best player at his position in the league, Alex Gordon might have been the guy I guessed.  Only that I wouldn’t have guessed the position to be left field, and no one could have predicted the ride it took to get him there.

Rany, by the way, is also an advocate of signing him up long-term, if things continue this way.

BUT….now for a couple of my own thoughts on the Royals….

Remember last year, when Moose got promoted to AAA?  He struggled for a while, then got RED HOT for the last part of the season and finished with a respectable AAA line.  HOWEVER…success towards the end of the AAA season has to be taken somewhat with a grain of salt.  As the season goes on a lot of the better talent gets moved up to the MLB level, and it’s harder to tell what caliber of pitchers you’re seeing.

So it made sense to see how Moose did over a more meaningful portion of an AAA season before getting two worked up over his 2010 performance in Omaha.  And once again, he got off to a dreadfully slow start at that level this year, but turned it around in dramatic fashion.  We’re within about two games worth of plate appearances (just 9 fewer at this point) from the number he got in 2010 in AAA, so I thought it would be a good time to see where he is.

The first point that sticks out is that his batting averages (.292 this year, .293 last) and OPS (.865, .878) are practically identical.  But how he got there tells a lot more of the story.  Last year, Moose could not be categorized as anything resembling a patient hitter.  He was all about fining the first ball he could hit and putting it into play.  In 236 AAA PAs, he struck out just 25 times, but also walked a mere 8 times. 

In 2011, it’s clear that he’s making a concerted effort to see more pitches and be more patient at the plate.  On the one hand, it’s probably put him into more difficult counts than he’s used to hitting out of, which probably accounts for the fact that his strike outs are up 15 in close to the same number of PAs (227).  HOWEVER, his walks are also up 10 to this point, which has had a net effect of raising his OBP from .314 to a highly respectable .356.

The other side of the coin that’s gone into his OPS being flat from a year ago is a slight drop in power.  At this point, he’s four doubles and five dongs off his 2010 mark (he has 9 PAs to catch up), but does have a triple.  So the SLG is down to .510 from .564, but it’s nothing to worry about.  .510 is STILL very good.

All in all, Moose has shown that his 2010 work in AAA was NOT a fluke, and he’s probably ready for the promotion any time the Royals see fit.

WHICH BRINGS ME TO MY LAST POINT:  How would you fit him into the lineup, when Wilson Betemit is having a highly-acceptable offensive season, while playing defense that is not GREAT (or even really good), but certainly better than what Moose is gonna give you with the glove?

Well, the easy answer is to trade Wilson away, and that’s fine and good.  Might I suggest an alternative, though?  Why not give Betemit a tryout at second base?

I know, I know.  You don’t usually take a below average 3^rd baseman and move him to second.  But hear me out.  Whatever we have in the system for future second basemen, I find them unlikely to be offensive improvements over Betemit.  While Wilson has been a utility infielder for the majority of his career, he’s shown through nearly 1800 career MLB plate appearances (or the equivalent of three years or so) that he’s an above-average major league hitter.

Betemit has a career OPS of .784 and an OPS + of 105—or for simplicity sake, 5% beyond an average major league hitter.  For comparison, in about 100 fewer PAs, Alex Gordon has a career OPS of .747 and an OPS+ of 100, or smack-dab at average for an MLB hitter (we know that more has gone into Alex’ numbers, but it’s just for comparison sake).

It’s not just that Betemit had a nice 2010 (which he did).  But in every season in which he’s been allowed to have at least 274 PAs, he’s had an OPS+ of over 100:

‘05 = 107

’06 = 101

’07 = 102

’10 = 143

So far this year, he’s hitting at an OPS+ of 126.  There’s no reason to believe that Wilson’s stick isn’t for real, and it would be HIGHLY RESPECABLE for an everyday second baseman.

So there’s the question:  Can Betemit play second?

The answer probably is:  Yes, but not terribly well.  Wilson has played 98 games in the middle infield in his career, the majority of which has been at shortstop.  He’s REALLY big for a second baseman, and his range would be fairly limited.

ON THE OTHER HAND…..the Royals MIGHT have both the best defensive shortstop AND the best defensive first baseman in the league.  Might Hosmer’s insanely above average range at first help cover the gap that Wilson would have?  Might Escobar’s wizardry in all aspects of defensive play help alleviate some of the stress of wondering if Wilson’s going to make good stars on double plays and whatnot?

Who knows?  Certainly not me, but I do think the Royals are a far better team with offensive players like Betemit in the lineup, and good pros like Aviles or Getz being available as utility infielders.

The Mexicutioner is Dead

Everybody’s got a take on the decline of Joakim Soria right now.  There is no shortage of REAL experts who would be able to break down all the problems with his mechanics, or to talk about possible injury concerns or how he’s tipping his pitches or anything like that.  There is any number of measurable reasons that goes into a guy who’s already given up 16 earned runs in just 22 innings—his second-highest number for any season, behind only the 19 he gave up in 69 innings as a rookie.  But I’m not qualified to point out any of those measurable things.  I’m good only for wild speculation.  So here goes….

The Joakim Soria we knew over the previous four years died this past off season.  That guy was the Mexicutioner.  This guy is just Jack.

If you’ll recall, sometime in the past six months or so, Soria cited the ongoing violence surrounding Mexican crime cartels, and asked that the public stop referring to him by his outstanding nickname, the “Mexicutioner.”  He wanted to be an instrument of peace and tranquility who could help his fellow countryman get their minds off of their real problems for a short time every day.

You can see the trouble starting right there. 

A closer has to have an edge, a little nastiness, a little bit of a “what the eff are you looking at?” attitude.  He’s OK with grazing the bill of your helmet to make you understand that the strike zone belongs to HIM, and you simply don’t deserve a pitch you want.  He hates the batter in front of him almost as much as he hates the thought of blowing a hard-fought win for somebody that threw a gem in the innings that preceded his work.

The Mexicutioner was the perfect moniker for the closer.  First off, it made reference to his Mexican heritage.  If you know anything about boxing, the very word “Mexican” is synonymous with “tough,” “gritty,” “in your face,” and “fierce.”  Combine that with imagery of the cold, hardened, hooded executioner of the medieval times, ready to send you off to your final doom.  It was PERFECT.

Now, he’s just Jack.

Don’t get me wrong.  There’s been some pretty scary Jack’s throughout history.  Jack Johnson, Jack the Ripper, etc.  But for the most part, “Jack” doesn’t evoke much fear in the hearts of anybody. 

Jack is a golfer you call “The Golden Bear.”  Jack lives with a couple of girls and spends half his time convincing Don Knotts that he’s g@y.  Jack often precedes “squat” and finishes the line “you don’t know….”

Would the Mexicutioner ever trot, tail between legs, into his manager’s office and request to be relieved of his closer duties because he just can’t handle the pressure anymore?  Nope…..but Jack did.

It’s become frighteningly clear to me that the transformation from the “Mexicutioner” to “Jack” was more than just a nickname change.  It was all about what’s IN a name.  This is a kinder, gentler Joakim Soria.  He’s not a guy we want or need on this team.

If he doesn’t find a little Mexicutioner in his heart somewhere soon, we’ll have no choice but to look up off-season articles about how we could have had Jesus Montero behind the plate right now, had we been willing to part with Jack’s services.

If You Can Make It There...

Hosmer’s dong yesterday left the yard in a hurry.  Yankee’s Stadium is fairly short in right, but I think it would have gotten out in Kansas City.  The one he hit on Wednesday absolutely would have.  But to me, what was more impressive was the check-swing double he had later in the game.  His bat literally never got through the strike zone.  They showed it from the above angle, and if he hadn’t hit the ball, I’m pretty sure the 3^rd base umpire wouldn’t have called it a strike on appeal.  And yet, he was strong enough to shoot it over the third baseman’s head and up the line for a double.  Unbelievable.

You know, when you take into consideration the two stellar defensive plays he made in the game while going 3-for-5, that kid must might have a future in this game.

Butler came out of his mini-slump nicely.  I said earlier in the year that if any Royals pitcher has earned the right to go gas can every now and then without the fan base getting excited about it, it was Soria.  You know he’s going to be fine.  By the same token, Billy is the lone offensive player who has earned the right to have a little slump every now and then without anyone getting excited over it.  I’ll admit, this last one has concerned me just a little, because of the extenuating circumstances.  Billy has ALWAYS fancied himself as a guy who can play both sides of the game (offense and defense), and he’s always been vocal about his distaste for the DH role.  At one point last year, I read a stat that showed his batting average to be some 30+ percentage points higher when he plays first base as opposed to DH. 

I think, as Kila was up here floundering, Billy continued to hold out some small glimmer of hope that he might get inserted into the defense for an extended period of time.  When the Royals called up Hosmer, it became abundantly clear that this simply isn’t going to happen.  Billy looked a little down-trodden for a few days, and his swing reflected it.  There’s just something about what goes through his mind when he’s sitting there, thinking about his at bats, rather than having his head in the defensive side of the game.  I’m not going to lie—it does concern me a bit.  But his four hits yesterday show that the ability is still there, and we still have no right to get all that worried about Billy.

On the other hand, Alex Gordon really hasn’t earned that right.  His particular mini-slump is a little concerning to me.  You really have to go back to 2008 to see the last time he came out of any kind of slump at all.  Well, on the other hand, you kind of have to go back to 2008 to see the last time he ever HIT the ball with authority, too.

May has not been good to Alex at all.  Yesterday, he easily could have been the offensive star of the game.  He had a 405-foot rocket double that short-hopped the fence in dead center, and took a walk the next time up.  But he got a little bit unlucky in his next two at-bats.  One was one he hit just off-center on the ball, but still required a decent catch at the top of the wall in right.  The other was similar to the earlier 405-foot drive, but a smidge further to the right, which allowed the center fielder to make a running catch on the track.  Hopefully a little luck will come back his way again.

Looking at the Detroit series……I get the same feeling I’ve been getting with every series we’ve played so far:  Man, how do we match up with these guys on the mound?  We can’t.  They’re all paper mismatches.  I mean, with the number of runs the Royals have scored (they currently lead the league), we should be leading the central.  But the starting pitching appears to be the lone anchor holding us down for the time being.

Can I get a little Duffy?  I little Montgomery?  I’m not picky, I’ll take either.  Or both.

Reheated Moose Tacos

OK, so Moose Tacos got off to a disappointing start in AAA for the second time in two years.  We kind of forget about how much he struggled after moving up last year, because he ended up on a tear, and eventually was named the minor leagues hitter of the year.  At the end of the day, the slug did return for him at AAA, but he never really recovered, in terms of OBP, ending up just north of .300 for his 236 PAs in AAA.

Apart from the four dongs he ripped, his 2011 April was borderline dreadful.  In 21 games, his line was .229/.304/.410.  What seemed unthinkable a few months ago came to pass—he got lapped by Eric Hosmer on the race to the major leagues.  Hos makes it up in one year less time (and counting) than Moose.

But at least for the small sample size of May so far, things appear to be turning up for Moose.  Through 8 games, he’s hitting .344/.436/.531 for the month.

The thing that’s interesting about what Moose is that he appears to be actively trying to be more patient at the plate.  Alas, he had a mere 8 walks in his 236 AAA appearances last year, and just 25 strikeouts.  That says he was being far to anxious about putting the ball into play.  Through just 132 PAs this year, he already has 13 walks.  Unfortunately, the strikeouts have increased, as well—he’s already up to 24.  But that’s probably a symptom of his appearances growing to counts he’s not used to getting into.  It’s pretty easy to put the ball into play at 0-0, 1-0, 0-1.  Once you start actively trying to work the count, it takes some adjustment time to learn how to hit with 2 strikes.

I, personally, look at these as positives.  His average currently sits at .261, but the OBP is a respectable .344—far beyond what he was able to do at AAA last season.  It’s a learning curve, but he’s (slightly) passing the test.

BTW….In his blog from last Friday, Rany mentioned talking in the not-to-distant past with one scout who made a comparison for both Hosmer and Moose.  Hosmer he said looked like a bigger and stronger version of Will Clark (sweet brown gravy!).  His comparison for Moose, on the other hand, wasn’t so glowing.

Moose, he said, looked like Shea Hillenbrand with more power.  That really stung when I first read it, seeing as how Hillenbrand’s promising career (a 2-time all-star in his first 5 seasons) was over after 7 seasons.  And there’s no one who can argue against the fact that Moose’s glove work has shown signs of being Shea-esque (sigh).

But if you think longer about it, if “Hillenbrand with more power” is a guarantee for Moose, I’m not sure I wouldn’t sign up to take it.  I mean, Hillenbrand isn’t out of the league right now because of his poor defense, or even for his stick, for that matter.  He’s out of the league because he’s a douche and a locker room cancer.  There are only so many times you can fight with your club, your manager and the world before the game is going to be tired of you.

But a guy who hits about .285/.325 and consistently launches 15 to 20 dongs a year (Hillenbrand) ought to be in the league.  KNOWING Moose’s problems for getting on base through a big chunk of his minor league career, would you NOT jump at a guarantee that he could go .285/.325?  Especially when that guarantee comes with that “more power” element?

As hyped as Moose has been, we are Royals’ fans, after all.  Would anyone really NOT jump on board if, for his 6 to 7 year career in Kansas City, we could be guaranteed a Moose line of .285/.325/.500 with an average of about 25 dongs a year?

This scout might have been sending out a back-handed complement, but I’d gladly stick my face in front of it for a guy that produces like that.  It’s better than anything we’ve produced in the past 20 years not named “Beltran.”

Is Gordon "fixed" or just finally healthy?

I know the popular thought is that Kevin Seitzer “fixed” Alex Gordon this off-season, and I’m not down-playing the hard work the two of them put in to get Alex to play the way he’s been playing the first month-plus of the season.  Alex was in a BAD PLACE last year, and he needed to be reminded of how good he is.

Nevertheless, I’ve been firmly in the camp that most of Alex’s problems stemmed from his lack of being able to stay healthy, and the shattered confidence that came from his poor play when he was unable to do any better.  It spiraled from there, but I’m convinced that Alex was well on his way to becoming an extremely productive player by the end of 2008.  Rany’s stats are in my court.

His blog from last night attempted to put the AMAZING Aprils that Gordon and Francoeur had into perspective, with regards to the rest of their careers.  It should be noted that he included Alex’ opening day 0-5 job on March 31 of this year as part of April, as apparently is tradition to do so.  So he ended up with a line of .339/.395/.541.

Rany noted that, due to injury, Alex has only had 70 or more plate appearances in 13 calendar months of his entire professional year.  In terms of calendar months, Alex’s April of 2011 is his best month ever.  HOWEVER, he also determined that it was NOT his best stretch over a similar amount of plate appearances.

Alex’s April of this year went .339/.395/.541, with 12 doubles, 2 triples and 2 Dongs, but uncharacteristically, with just 8 walks against 21 Ks. 

His BEST stretch over about the same period, though, was his last 133 plate appearances of the 2008 season.  For that stretch, he went .301/.400/.549 with 11 doubles, 1 triple and 5 dongs.  During that stretch he had 20 walks against 25 Ks. 

If it’s a question of which of those Alex Gordon’s you’d rather have, you’d clearly take either, BUT would probably lean towards the one who’s walking at a nearly one-to-one ratio with his strikeouts, AND is hitting dongs at a rate of 2.5 to 1 over the 2011 version.

BUT the bigger point is that this was how Gordon finished up his last relatively healthy season (he did miss 3 weeks in the middle of that stretch in 2008, but it didn’t affect his head to a significant degree).  He was WELL on his way to becoming what we thought he could be.  But in the very first game of 2009, he suffered a devastating hip injury, and he was never the same again.  Ditto, to some degree, with 2010, only with a hand injury that threw him off and caused him to lose heart (at least at the Major League level, anyway).

Again, I don’t want to downplay what Seitz has done for him.  But the truth is that a healthy Alex Gordon was going to be a productive Alex Gordon.  I’m glad we’re seeing that play out now.

Can I please get 2 starters and a lead-off man?

The way I look at it right now, the Royals are probably about 2 quality starting pitchers and a true lead-off man away from being a contender in the AL Central.  I’m only willing to entertain the fantasy that we may even be THAT close to contending because the Central, itself, looks awful pathetic to this point.  Cleveland is playing well, but they’re a team that was projected to win about 65 games this year.  It’s entirely possible that they could fall back.  Everybody outside of the Indians and Royals range from “below .500” to “WELL-BELOW .500.” The following AL offensive rankings for the Royals are staggering to me: Runs (the most important category):  2nd Batting average:  1st OBP:  2nd Hits:  1st OPS:  4th SLG:  4th Walks:  4th The SLG and OPS are most affected by the fact that the Royals are only 9th in the AL in dongs—not altogether shocking, considering the park they play in and the way the team is built.  On the other hand, they ALMOST make up for it by the shockingly high number of doubles they’ve been hitting.  They currently lead the AL in that category. When Aviles and Betemit are in the lineup together right now, the Royals have about as effective of a 6-man offensive combination as anyone in baseball AT THE MOMENT.  I’m not silly enough to think it will last forever, but Aviles, Cabrera, Gordon, Butler, Francoeur and Betemit are collectively exceeding expectations to this point.  That includes the fact that Aviles got off to a HORRENDOUS start.  Since limping out to a line of .107/.188/.321 by April 12, Aviles has raised it to .250/.280/.539 in less than 3 weeks.  He’s hitting .317 over that time with a .707 SLG (4 dongs, 4 doubles). How’s this for a stat:  Billy Butler is doing just fine.  Hitting .320/.438/.490 with three dongs.  And yet, he’s merely in 6th place on this team for RBIs, behind each of the other 5 offensive players who are getting it done.  If Billy Butler is your 6th-best run producer, you’re probably getting some darn fine offense. The problem, of course, is that we’re getting very little offense from the middle infield and the catcher spot.  I can live with whatever Escobar gives us, because every damn night, he saves at least a run with his glove.  But as Ned Yost says, it’s awfully hard to hide three ineffective offensive players in your lineup.  I would expect the “successful six” to come back towards average more than I expect the “terrible trifecta” to move upwards.  So unless we can find an offensive solution, I don’t expect us to remain a top-tier offensive team for long. More than anything, a true leadoff man would be nice. The other side of the Royals’ coin is that, as much as the offense has been better than expected, the starting pitching has been right about where we thought it would be.  And that’s not good.  The Royals’ pitching staff as a whole (which includes the lights-out play from a portion of the bullpen) currently ranks 11th in ERA, 13th in batting average allowed, and has given up the 4th-most runs in the league. I don’t know how much more the pen can do.  We need starting help, and soon. Danny Duffy is currently leading the Pacific Coast league with a 0.90 ERA in 4 starts.  He’s struck out 24 batters, against just 4 walks, in 20 innings pitched.  Mike Montgomery and Everett Teaford join him in the top 15 of every meaningful category in the league. We have help a-waitin’.  How long until we decide we’re a player in this division, and can use a little of that help right now?