Give Wilson a Chance

Rany’s article from June 2 was very entertaining.  Provided some info that supported his thoughts that Gordon is for real and Francoeur’s resurgence is not.  Also pointed out that, at least to this point in the season, Gordon is the undisputed best left fielder in the American League.  In a sense, that’s a back-handed compliment, because the quality of left fielders in the AL is not what it once was.  NEVERTHELESS….if you would have told me 5 years ago that, in 2011, the Royals would have exactly one player on their roster who was the best player at his position in the league, Alex Gordon might have been the guy I guessed.  Only that I wouldn’t have guessed the position to be left field, and no one could have predicted the ride it took to get him there.

Rany, by the way, is also an advocate of signing him up long-term, if things continue this way.

BUT….now for a couple of my own thoughts on the Royals….

Remember last year, when Moose got promoted to AAA?  He struggled for a while, then got RED HOT for the last part of the season and finished with a respectable AAA line.  HOWEVER…success towards the end of the AAA season has to be taken somewhat with a grain of salt.  As the season goes on a lot of the better talent gets moved up to the MLB level, and it’s harder to tell what caliber of pitchers you’re seeing.

So it made sense to see how Moose did over a more meaningful portion of an AAA season before getting two worked up over his 2010 performance in Omaha.  And once again, he got off to a dreadfully slow start at that level this year, but turned it around in dramatic fashion.  We’re within about two games worth of plate appearances (just 9 fewer at this point) from the number he got in 2010 in AAA, so I thought it would be a good time to see where he is.

The first point that sticks out is that his batting averages (.292 this year, .293 last) and OPS (.865, .878) are practically identical.  But how he got there tells a lot more of the story.  Last year, Moose could not be categorized as anything resembling a patient hitter.  He was all about fining the first ball he could hit and putting it into play.  In 236 AAA PAs, he struck out just 25 times, but also walked a mere 8 times. 

In 2011, it’s clear that he’s making a concerted effort to see more pitches and be more patient at the plate.  On the one hand, it’s probably put him into more difficult counts than he’s used to hitting out of, which probably accounts for the fact that his strike outs are up 15 in close to the same number of PAs (227).  HOWEVER, his walks are also up 10 to this point, which has had a net effect of raising his OBP from .314 to a highly respectable .356.

The other side of the coin that’s gone into his OPS being flat from a year ago is a slight drop in power.  At this point, he’s four doubles and five dongs off his 2010 mark (he has 9 PAs to catch up), but does have a triple.  So the SLG is down to .510 from .564, but it’s nothing to worry about.  .510 is STILL very good.

All in all, Moose has shown that his 2010 work in AAA was NOT a fluke, and he’s probably ready for the promotion any time the Royals see fit.

WHICH BRINGS ME TO MY LAST POINT:  How would you fit him into the lineup, when Wilson Betemit is having a highly-acceptable offensive season, while playing defense that is not GREAT (or even really good), but certainly better than what Moose is gonna give you with the glove?

Well, the easy answer is to trade Wilson away, and that’s fine and good.  Might I suggest an alternative, though?  Why not give Betemit a tryout at second base?

I know, I know.  You don’t usually take a below average 3^rd baseman and move him to second.  But hear me out.  Whatever we have in the system for future second basemen, I find them unlikely to be offensive improvements over Betemit.  While Wilson has been a utility infielder for the majority of his career, he’s shown through nearly 1800 career MLB plate appearances (or the equivalent of three years or so) that he’s an above-average major league hitter.

Betemit has a career OPS of .784 and an OPS + of 105—or for simplicity sake, 5% beyond an average major league hitter.  For comparison, in about 100 fewer PAs, Alex Gordon has a career OPS of .747 and an OPS+ of 100, or smack-dab at average for an MLB hitter (we know that more has gone into Alex’ numbers, but it’s just for comparison sake).

It’s not just that Betemit had a nice 2010 (which he did).  But in every season in which he’s been allowed to have at least 274 PAs, he’s had an OPS+ of over 100:

‘05 = 107

’06 = 101

’07 = 102

’10 = 143

So far this year, he’s hitting at an OPS+ of 126.  There’s no reason to believe that Wilson’s stick isn’t for real, and it would be HIGHLY RESPECABLE for an everyday second baseman.

So there’s the question:  Can Betemit play second?

The answer probably is:  Yes, but not terribly well.  Wilson has played 98 games in the middle infield in his career, the majority of which has been at shortstop.  He’s REALLY big for a second baseman, and his range would be fairly limited.

ON THE OTHER HAND…..the Royals MIGHT have both the best defensive shortstop AND the best defensive first baseman in the league.  Might Hosmer’s insanely above average range at first help cover the gap that Wilson would have?  Might Escobar’s wizardry in all aspects of defensive play help alleviate some of the stress of wondering if Wilson’s going to make good stars on double plays and whatnot?

Who knows?  Certainly not me, but I do think the Royals are a far better team with offensive players like Betemit in the lineup, and good pros like Aviles or Getz being available as utility infielders.