The Conspiracies Are Bigger In Texas

Big 12 fans appear to be in for an exciting finish to league play, with the final two byes for the conference tournament basically still up for grabs.  More on that in a moment.  BUT FIRST, I have to cry foul.  Somebody has to. 

The Big 12 Conference is trying its darnedest to GIVE the basketball conference championship to Texas.

Let me step back for a second.  I’m not typically a conspiracy theorist.  And as a Kansas fan, I understand that those who hate KU generally feel that we’re the ones who get all the calls and all the preferential treatment.  And I KNOW that there truly are no “Big 12 Officials,” and that these guys are merely independent contractors who all work multiple leagues (by the way, this is a cool site where you can track all D-1 officials.  What games they work, what leagues they work in, what their foul trends are, etc.  It’s really kind of neat).

But all of that said, what’s happening for Texas this year is unprecedented.  You know, half the league dropped their shorts for Bevo this past summer.  Handed Texas their wallets.  Begged them to keep the league together, no matter the cost.  Who’s to say that part of the deal didn’t include a clause that a little special treatment was going to be coming their way from the guys in zebra shirts? (no amount of zebra help was going to save the UT football team this year, by the way—they had to shift the aid over to basketball)

I study the conference statistic charts at least once a week, usually more.  I was taken aback by how few free throws Texas opponents have shot this year in conference games, and how gargantuan their free throw differential is.  So for fun, I took a quick peak at the stats for conference games for the past four (’07-’08 through the present) seasons.  Not enough to form a LONG TERM opinion, but I thought it might tell us a little something.

In a way, the evidence kind of supports the belief I’ve always had, and that’s that good teams find a way to get to the free throw line, AND find a way to limit their fouling.  In fact, for the four years, 15 out of the 20 teams that finished in the top 5 in free throw differential also finished in the top 5 in league (or in the case of this year, are currently top 5 in the standings).

Believe it or not, Kansas is NOT the leader in free throw differential.  Texas A&M is the RUNAWAY leader at +378.  They have been in the top two in the conference for all four years.  Kansas is a distant second at +198.  Not surprising, Missouri is actually last in the league at -167, but that is severely skewed by the -156 they put up on 2008.  Anderson’s teams hadn’t yet learned to put their opponents through “40 minutes of hell” without hacking the cr@p out of people.

Of the previous three years, the widest free throw differential was the +138 that A&M posted in 2009.  Through only 13 games, Texas is CURRENTLY at +131.  They are on pace to end up with a +161 free throw differential for THIS YEAR ALONE.  That’s a mere 37 fewer than what Kansas has pulled off in nearly four seasons combined!

On the flip side, the fewest free throws any team has allowed in a year was A&M’s 273 allowed in 2009.  Texas is on pace to allow only 252 free throws this year.

KEEP IN MIND….Texas is the statistical defensive leader right now in conference play.  They live in their opponent’s shorts, lead the league in blocked shots and in opponent’s shooting percentage.  And somehow, their opponents go to the line less often than anyone else’s.  For comparison, Kansas is second in the league in FG% defense, and their opponents have attempted 52 more free throws than Texas’ opponents.  Something is WRONG.

I don’t think any single game illustrates what the officials are doing better than the one game Texas actually managed to LOSE.  To reset the finish, Nebraska was up by 11 points with 1:41 left on the clock.  To that point, Texas had gone to the free throw line only 16 times (that’s 16 times in the first 38:16 of the game).  In that last 1:41, the referees put Texas on the line TWELVE TIMES!  Half of that number came from two controversial (bordering on horse sh!t) fouls on 3-poing shots.  Conveniently, Texas managed to tie the game, erasing an 11-point deficit in a little more than a minute.  Nebraska managed to hit enough free throws of their own (after a Texas miss) to close it out, but the officials did everything in their power to give the Longhorns the victory.

OK, NOW THAT I’VE GOT THAT OUT OF MY SYSTEM……The conference race looks pretty good from here on out.  Not necessarily for the first two spots—those are all-but-clenched for UT and KU, although the order of the two is still slightly in doubt. 

Of the final two remaining first-round byes, Texas A&M is clearly the favorite to secure one.  At 9-4, and one of their three remaining games being Texas Tech at home, a record worse than 10-6 seems unfathomable, and that’s certainly going to be good enough for third or fourth this year.

After A&M, Mizzou and Kansas State are basically in a virtual tie for fourth.  Missouri has the one-game lead right now, but with their win over Kansas, K-State takes the upper hand in determining tie-break criteria later on, should Kansas State beat Missouri in The Octagon on Saturday.  Outside of that, Missouri actually doesn’t have a game left that you look at and say, “That’s a sure win.”  They play at Kansas State, then at Nebraska, and get Kansas at home.  I will not argue with anyone that has them finishing up anywhere from 8-8 to 11-5.  Every scenario between feels absolutely possible, to me.

My gut, though, says that Kansas State is going to end up getting the final bye.  They usually split with Missouri, and they’re playing well enough right now to feel like they SHOULD beat the Tigers in Manhattan.  Kansas State does get a home “gimme” game when Iowa State comes into town on the last day of the season.  Even if they can’t upset Texas in Austin, 9-7 is looking very likely for the Wildcats, and I suspect that will be enough to pull the tie-break from Missouri, if Mizzou finishes 1-2.

Baylor, Nebraska and Colorado are probably all alive for byes, sitting at 6-7 right now.  But a whole lot of stuff is going to have to happen for them to get a bye.  Colorado does have the tie-breaker over Kansas State, so that would come into play if they’re both 9-7 and tied for 4^th.  That starts to look possible if the Buffalos pull off the upset at home over Texas this Saturday.  If they don’t they’re done.  Nebraska got swept by Kansas State, but could even the series with Missouri next week.  Baylor has a pretty tough row to hoe, with home games against A&M and Texas sandwiched around a trip to Stillwater.

It’s the most wonderful time of the year, friends, and we’re only getting started!!!!!