The Royals’ farm system has been getting a lot of deserved run lately. It’s no shocker for those of us who have been following it, but it’s fun to see the big dogs like Baseball Prospectus, ESPN and MLB.com finally come out and say we’ve got the best crop of prospects in all of baseball. WE know we have reason to hope in the future. Now, the word is out and everyone has to sit up and take notice.
It’s somewhat ironic that (with the exception of left-handed starting pitching), the place we’re most healthy in the minors is also the one place where we don’t appear to need any short or long-term help in at the MLB level—first base. The one-and-only elite bat in Kansas City belongs to Billy Butler, whom the Royals just signed to a team-friendly four-year deal with a team option for a 5th year (which, I predict, will look like we took Billy to the cleaners by the time his career is over).
Eric Hosmer is pegged as the first baseman of the future, but he likely isn’t more than a year away from forcing himself onto the big league team. But to do what? Billy has made it clear that he doesn’t want to be a full-time DH. Yet Hosmer is looked at as possibly the Royals’ best minor league defender at any position as a first baseman. This is a dilemma—a good one, but a dilemma all the same.
A couple weeks ago, in an interview with Nick Wright on 610 radio in Kansas City, Bill asked a question that I’ve been asking for a while, but made even more sense when he asked it in the context he did. Billy related the fact that the Royals had tried him at a couple of different positions before ultimately settling on using him at first base. He was drafted as a third baseman, then played a lot of outfield, and didn’t actually touch a first baseman’s mitt until after he reached Kansas City.
Billy’s point: If the Royals were willing to give him a shot at some of the more “athletic” positions on the field before deciding he could only play first base, why wouldn’t they try that with a guy like Hosmer, as well?
BINGO!!!!! No offense to Billy, but he’s a one-tool defensive player. He’s got a cannon for an arm, but less range than a paper plane dipped in molten lead. He’s 6’1” wearing Cpl. Klinger’s best pumps, and 245 if he’s an ounce. He’s built like a linebacker and runs like an offensive guard. And yet, the Royals gave him every opportunity to play the field before settling him in the position where you traditionally play the fat kid.
Enter Hosmer. He’s tall, he’s long, he’s lean and he’s not an complete abortion with his legs. He just LOOKS like an athlete. As desperate as the Royals are for corner outfielders who can slug, why hasn’t the thought crossed their mind to give Hosmer a shot out there? What would it hurt? And yet, he’s played no position in the field BUT first base since coming on board.
The prevailing thought is that Billy will eventually move to DH for the better-defending Hosmer, but we know that’s not what he wants. How long will we be able to keep Billy happy there? Of course, his team-friendly contract makes him a powerful trade chip, but the Royals are seriously lacking in right-handed hitting—the rest of the first base options are all lefties.
Let’s play “Royals Czar For the Day” for a minute. I’m going to show you a couple of minor league hitting lines, and then we’ll talk a little about the guys.
Player A: 1733 PAs (548 at AA or higher). .307/.373/.537/.909. 74 dongs, 112 2Bs, 10 3Bs, 149 walks.
Player B: 1660 PAs (534 at AA or higher). .282/.336/.504/.839. 74 dongs, 102 2Bs, 6 BBs, 113 walks.
Not bad, right? 73 more plate appearances for Player A, but overall, you’d say that he compares rather favorably to Player B so far in their minor league journeys.
Player B is the #7 overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com. Player A isn’t in their top 50. Why? Because Player B is 3+ years younger than Player A, and can play the field. Player A is 25, and projects to the life of a career DH.
Player B is Mike Moustakas. Player A is Clint Robinson.
Here’s the thing—you’re never going to have Hosmer, Butler and Robinson on your 25-man at the same time if they’re all limited to the 1B/DH slots. The nice thing about Robinson is that he appears to understand his limitations as a fielder, and has been nothing but positive while spending large chunks of the past season as the DH. He was the Texas League Triple Crown winner—can’t argue with that kind of success.
Robinson isn’t going to get you a ton on the trade market. He’s going to be 26 this year, and we talked about his projection as a DH. Moving Hosmer to an outfield spot would allow you to project BOTH him and Robinson into the lineup with Billy as a happy every-day first baseman. THAT’S what I do with my day as Royals Czar. It all seems so simple.
Why not give it a try? You can always move him back. Seems like a great year to try it out, when you’re staring 100 losses in the face anyway.
Cain-CF
ReplyDeleteColon-2b
Kila-1b
Butler-DH
Moose-3b
Myers-RF
Hosmer-LF
Escobar-SS
Pena/Pina-C
A bench of lough, Bianchi, Gio, Robinson
Yeah I think I could live with that
I don't share a lot of the enthusiasm of Kila that a lot of fans do. We'll see what happens in the first half of the year. He'll be 27 this season. It's kind of a make-or-break year for him. We'll see. If you look at his minors numbers, he's kind of an every-other-year-guy.
ReplyDeleteLovin' the posts, keep 'em coming!
ReplyDeleteSwitching positions is risky business. Chone Figgins was a mess. Bill Hall, when he was in Milwaukee also comes to mind. Hitting takes concentration, as does learning a new position.
ReplyDeleteTo the poster that said Kila was an every other year type player in the minors.... Basically what you are seeing is a "learning" year at a level, and then a breakthrough type year after. Following that same pattern, it would stand to reason that this year (2011) should be an improved year. While I don't think you will see a great batting average, I think if given the playing time and no injuries, he could easily hit 22-25 homeruns.
ReplyDeleteIt was brought up over on RC, that Kila hit a homerun every 25 at-bats last year when he made it to the majors.... If Kila is given roughly 675 at-bats this year (Billy Butler had 678 last year), that translates to 27 homeruns. Do I expect 30+ homeruns out of Kila? No, of course not, but it wouldn't be a stretch, either.
Some of our prospects aren't going to pan out, and others that we don't think will, actually WILL step their game up. Let Kila prove himself this year, and if he is awful, well then, at least that is one less thing to "worry" about. But if he is great this year, let the Royals go ahead and cross that road when they come to it.