Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Is Billy Butler the George Brett sequel?

I enjoy doing the Brett/Butler comparison, since they started playing at roughly the same age, and Brett’s as good of a model to look at as any, seeing as how he’s the greatest Royal ever and one of the 25 best hitters of all time.  With Butler signing on long-term, I thought it would be fun to look at.  

Billy just completed the season in which he turned 24 years old.  By the same age (almost exactly—Brett’s birthday is in May, Billy’s in April), Brett had played roughly a half-season more major league baseball than Billy had at the same age (70 more games, 368 more plate appearances, 365 more at-bats).  Keep that in mind.  Anyway, here’s how they look at the same age:

George:  .308/.356/.453/.809
Billy:  .299/.359/.457/.816

How exciting is that?  Billy is slightly outpacing the greatest Royal ever for OPS.  Billy’s hitting for a little more power (a dong every 39.7 PAs, versus one every 60.8 for Brett, and an extra base hit every 10.99 PAs, versus one every 12.11 for Brett).  Billy is also out-pacing Brett for drawing walks—one every 11.7 PAs for Billy, while George was drawing one every 14.95 PAs.

There are a couple reasons why Billy draws more walks.  For one, he plays in an era where walks are more valued.  But more importantly, Billy is likely to get less decent pitches to hit because there has been literally NO ONE in the Royals’ lineup to protect him since he’s been a major leaguer.

The one glaring place where Billy SIGNIFICANTLY lags behind Brett is in strike outs, which is undoubtedly the reason he lags in a little batting average.  Billy does not strike out an outlandish number of times—once every 7.46 PAs.  Brett, however, was a historically good contact hitter, striking out only once every 16.82 PAs through the same age.  ON THE OTHER HAND…part of the reason Billy strikes out more is because he’s looking for the walk more than Brett did.  It’s a give and take, and Billy’s still trying to balance it out.  Last year, Billy SIGNIFICANTLY cut down on strikeouts (25 fewer, despite 6 more PAs), and had his career-best in walks.  He had 69 BBs to 78 Ks, so he’s getting closer to one of his stated goals, which is to have more walks than strikeouts. 

Since baseball is a game of numbers, here are your raw numbers through the age of 24 for both guys:

Games:  Brett = 603, Billy = 533
PAs:  Brett = 2556, Billy = 2188
ABs:  Brett = 2340, Billy = 1975
Hits:   Brett = 720, Billy = 590
2B:  Brett = 124, Billy = 141
3B:  Brett = 45, Billy = 3
Dongs:  Brett = 42, Billy = 55 (Brett had more 3Bs than dongs at that point—how interesting)
RBIs:  Brett = 291, Billy = 278
BBs:  Brett = 171, Billy = 187
Ks = Brett = 152, Billy = 293

3 comments:

  1. Let me know when Billy Butler $hits his pants on the reg...then, maybe, we can commence with this comparison.

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  2. Billy Butler: A kinder, doughier George Brett

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  3. let me know when butler gets to cooperstown, then we can continue the comparison

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