Ah, When Mike was Healthy.......

With the forthcoming promotion of Moose Tacos, who (if he stayed with the Royals for his career, which he will not, so this is a moot point) has the potential to hit for more power than any Royal in history, I’ve been playing around with a few stats over lunch.

Man, is it easy to forget how good of a hitter Mike Sweeney was, before he was reduced to a huddled mass on a gurney.  In fact, this may sound ludicrous, but from 1999 to 2005 (his only quasi-healthy-to-healthy seasons), he had the most offensively-productive seven-year period in the history of Royals’ baseball.

Granted, he wasn’t even completely healthy during that period, missing about 30 games a year on average.  But the MOST productive offensive player (George Brett) was also prone to the same kind of health outages throughout his career.

I scoured Brett’s stats to see if I could find what his MOST productive seven-year period was.  There’s some room for debate in there—Brett had periods where he hit for great average, but not much in terms of power, for example.  BY A SLIM MARGIN, I picked the period starting in 1982 over the period starting in 1980.  The period starting in 1982 was his best “power” period of seven seasons, with five of his top eight dong years, three of his top seven OPS years (including two of his top three), and four of his top nine RBI years.  Brett’s batting average for that period is nearly identical to his career average (.304, compared to .305 for his career).  I think it’s a fair period to look at.

Plus, it just so happens that Brett and Sweeney had nearly an identical number of games (922 and 918, respectively) and at bats (3,400 and 3,496) for the periods, so it works out very nicely.

BY THE WAY….I’d like to apologize to all of my stat geek friends.  I did not calculate OBP for this model.  I thought about doing it, but didn’t have the time.  Besides, I eye-balled it, and my educated guess is that Brett trended slightly higher, but not by a whole lot.  Brett’s OBP for the period floated between a low of .344 and a high of .436, while Sweeney went between .347 and .417.  All solidly within the range of what you’d take for guys hitting with the kind of power they did in their respective 7-year periods.

OK, so here’s your comparison.  Enjoy!

Mike Sweeney, 1999 through 2005 (age 25 to 31)

Games = 918

Hits = 1095

Batting Average = .313

Homeruns = 163

Doubles = 231

Triples = 4

Slugging Percentage = .521

RBIs = 697

George Brett, 1982 through 1988 (age 29 to 35)

Games = 922

Hits = 1033

Batting Average = .304

Homeruns = 151

Doubles = 217

Triples = 28

Slugging Percentage = .517

RBIs = 610

Give Wilson a Chance

Rany’s article from June 2 was very entertaining.  Provided some info that supported his thoughts that Gordon is for real and Francoeur’s resurgence is not.  Also pointed out that, at least to this point in the season, Gordon is the undisputed best left fielder in the American League.  In a sense, that’s a back-handed compliment, because the quality of left fielders in the AL is not what it once was.  NEVERTHELESS….if you would have told me 5 years ago that, in 2011, the Royals would have exactly one player on their roster who was the best player at his position in the league, Alex Gordon might have been the guy I guessed.  Only that I wouldn’t have guessed the position to be left field, and no one could have predicted the ride it took to get him there.

Rany, by the way, is also an advocate of signing him up long-term, if things continue this way.

BUT….now for a couple of my own thoughts on the Royals….

Remember last year, when Moose got promoted to AAA?  He struggled for a while, then got RED HOT for the last part of the season and finished with a respectable AAA line.  HOWEVER…success towards the end of the AAA season has to be taken somewhat with a grain of salt.  As the season goes on a lot of the better talent gets moved up to the MLB level, and it’s harder to tell what caliber of pitchers you’re seeing.

So it made sense to see how Moose did over a more meaningful portion of an AAA season before getting two worked up over his 2010 performance in Omaha.  And once again, he got off to a dreadfully slow start at that level this year, but turned it around in dramatic fashion.  We’re within about two games worth of plate appearances (just 9 fewer at this point) from the number he got in 2010 in AAA, so I thought it would be a good time to see where he is.

The first point that sticks out is that his batting averages (.292 this year, .293 last) and OPS (.865, .878) are practically identical.  But how he got there tells a lot more of the story.  Last year, Moose could not be categorized as anything resembling a patient hitter.  He was all about fining the first ball he could hit and putting it into play.  In 236 AAA PAs, he struck out just 25 times, but also walked a mere 8 times. 

In 2011, it’s clear that he’s making a concerted effort to see more pitches and be more patient at the plate.  On the one hand, it’s probably put him into more difficult counts than he’s used to hitting out of, which probably accounts for the fact that his strike outs are up 15 in close to the same number of PAs (227).  HOWEVER, his walks are also up 10 to this point, which has had a net effect of raising his OBP from .314 to a highly respectable .356.

The other side of the coin that’s gone into his OPS being flat from a year ago is a slight drop in power.  At this point, he’s four doubles and five dongs off his 2010 mark (he has 9 PAs to catch up), but does have a triple.  So the SLG is down to .510 from .564, but it’s nothing to worry about.  .510 is STILL very good.

All in all, Moose has shown that his 2010 work in AAA was NOT a fluke, and he’s probably ready for the promotion any time the Royals see fit.

WHICH BRINGS ME TO MY LAST POINT:  How would you fit him into the lineup, when Wilson Betemit is having a highly-acceptable offensive season, while playing defense that is not GREAT (or even really good), but certainly better than what Moose is gonna give you with the glove?

Well, the easy answer is to trade Wilson away, and that’s fine and good.  Might I suggest an alternative, though?  Why not give Betemit a tryout at second base?

I know, I know.  You don’t usually take a below average 3^rd baseman and move him to second.  But hear me out.  Whatever we have in the system for future second basemen, I find them unlikely to be offensive improvements over Betemit.  While Wilson has been a utility infielder for the majority of his career, he’s shown through nearly 1800 career MLB plate appearances (or the equivalent of three years or so) that he’s an above-average major league hitter.

Betemit has a career OPS of .784 and an OPS + of 105—or for simplicity sake, 5% beyond an average major league hitter.  For comparison, in about 100 fewer PAs, Alex Gordon has a career OPS of .747 and an OPS+ of 100, or smack-dab at average for an MLB hitter (we know that more has gone into Alex’ numbers, but it’s just for comparison sake).

It’s not just that Betemit had a nice 2010 (which he did).  But in every season in which he’s been allowed to have at least 274 PAs, he’s had an OPS+ of over 100:

‘05 = 107

’06 = 101

’07 = 102

’10 = 143

So far this year, he’s hitting at an OPS+ of 126.  There’s no reason to believe that Wilson’s stick isn’t for real, and it would be HIGHLY RESPECABLE for an everyday second baseman.

So there’s the question:  Can Betemit play second?

The answer probably is:  Yes, but not terribly well.  Wilson has played 98 games in the middle infield in his career, the majority of which has been at shortstop.  He’s REALLY big for a second baseman, and his range would be fairly limited.

ON THE OTHER HAND…..the Royals MIGHT have both the best defensive shortstop AND the best defensive first baseman in the league.  Might Hosmer’s insanely above average range at first help cover the gap that Wilson would have?  Might Escobar’s wizardry in all aspects of defensive play help alleviate some of the stress of wondering if Wilson’s going to make good stars on double plays and whatnot?

Who knows?  Certainly not me, but I do think the Royals are a far better team with offensive players like Betemit in the lineup, and good pros like Aviles or Getz being available as utility infielders.

The Mexicutioner is Dead

Everybody’s got a take on the decline of Joakim Soria right now.  There is no shortage of REAL experts who would be able to break down all the problems with his mechanics, or to talk about possible injury concerns or how he’s tipping his pitches or anything like that.  There is any number of measurable reasons that goes into a guy who’s already given up 16 earned runs in just 22 innings—his second-highest number for any season, behind only the 19 he gave up in 69 innings as a rookie.  But I’m not qualified to point out any of those measurable things.  I’m good only for wild speculation.  So here goes….

The Joakim Soria we knew over the previous four years died this past off season.  That guy was the Mexicutioner.  This guy is just Jack.

If you’ll recall, sometime in the past six months or so, Soria cited the ongoing violence surrounding Mexican crime cartels, and asked that the public stop referring to him by his outstanding nickname, the “Mexicutioner.”  He wanted to be an instrument of peace and tranquility who could help his fellow countryman get their minds off of their real problems for a short time every day.

You can see the trouble starting right there. 

A closer has to have an edge, a little nastiness, a little bit of a “what the eff are you looking at?” attitude.  He’s OK with grazing the bill of your helmet to make you understand that the strike zone belongs to HIM, and you simply don’t deserve a pitch you want.  He hates the batter in front of him almost as much as he hates the thought of blowing a hard-fought win for somebody that threw a gem in the innings that preceded his work.

The Mexicutioner was the perfect moniker for the closer.  First off, it made reference to his Mexican heritage.  If you know anything about boxing, the very word “Mexican” is synonymous with “tough,” “gritty,” “in your face,” and “fierce.”  Combine that with imagery of the cold, hardened, hooded executioner of the medieval times, ready to send you off to your final doom.  It was PERFECT.

Now, he’s just Jack.

Don’t get me wrong.  There’s been some pretty scary Jack’s throughout history.  Jack Johnson, Jack the Ripper, etc.  But for the most part, “Jack” doesn’t evoke much fear in the hearts of anybody. 

Jack is a golfer you call “The Golden Bear.”  Jack lives with a couple of girls and spends half his time convincing Don Knotts that he’s g@y.  Jack often precedes “squat” and finishes the line “you don’t know….”

Would the Mexicutioner ever trot, tail between legs, into his manager’s office and request to be relieved of his closer duties because he just can’t handle the pressure anymore?  Nope…..but Jack did.

It’s become frighteningly clear to me that the transformation from the “Mexicutioner” to “Jack” was more than just a nickname change.  It was all about what’s IN a name.  This is a kinder, gentler Joakim Soria.  He’s not a guy we want or need on this team.

If he doesn’t find a little Mexicutioner in his heart somewhere soon, we’ll have no choice but to look up off-season articles about how we could have had Jesus Montero behind the plate right now, had we been willing to part with Jack’s services.

If You Can Make It There...

Hosmer’s dong yesterday left the yard in a hurry.  Yankee’s Stadium is fairly short in right, but I think it would have gotten out in Kansas City.  The one he hit on Wednesday absolutely would have.  But to me, what was more impressive was the check-swing double he had later in the game.  His bat literally never got through the strike zone.  They showed it from the above angle, and if he hadn’t hit the ball, I’m pretty sure the 3^rd base umpire wouldn’t have called it a strike on appeal.  And yet, he was strong enough to shoot it over the third baseman’s head and up the line for a double.  Unbelievable.

You know, when you take into consideration the two stellar defensive plays he made in the game while going 3-for-5, that kid must might have a future in this game.

Butler came out of his mini-slump nicely.  I said earlier in the year that if any Royals pitcher has earned the right to go gas can every now and then without the fan base getting excited about it, it was Soria.  You know he’s going to be fine.  By the same token, Billy is the lone offensive player who has earned the right to have a little slump every now and then without anyone getting excited over it.  I’ll admit, this last one has concerned me just a little, because of the extenuating circumstances.  Billy has ALWAYS fancied himself as a guy who can play both sides of the game (offense and defense), and he’s always been vocal about his distaste for the DH role.  At one point last year, I read a stat that showed his batting average to be some 30+ percentage points higher when he plays first base as opposed to DH. 

I think, as Kila was up here floundering, Billy continued to hold out some small glimmer of hope that he might get inserted into the defense for an extended period of time.  When the Royals called up Hosmer, it became abundantly clear that this simply isn’t going to happen.  Billy looked a little down-trodden for a few days, and his swing reflected it.  There’s just something about what goes through his mind when he’s sitting there, thinking about his at bats, rather than having his head in the defensive side of the game.  I’m not going to lie—it does concern me a bit.  But his four hits yesterday show that the ability is still there, and we still have no right to get all that worried about Billy.

On the other hand, Alex Gordon really hasn’t earned that right.  His particular mini-slump is a little concerning to me.  You really have to go back to 2008 to see the last time he came out of any kind of slump at all.  Well, on the other hand, you kind of have to go back to 2008 to see the last time he ever HIT the ball with authority, too.

May has not been good to Alex at all.  Yesterday, he easily could have been the offensive star of the game.  He had a 405-foot rocket double that short-hopped the fence in dead center, and took a walk the next time up.  But he got a little bit unlucky in his next two at-bats.  One was one he hit just off-center on the ball, but still required a decent catch at the top of the wall in right.  The other was similar to the earlier 405-foot drive, but a smidge further to the right, which allowed the center fielder to make a running catch on the track.  Hopefully a little luck will come back his way again.

Looking at the Detroit series……I get the same feeling I’ve been getting with every series we’ve played so far:  Man, how do we match up with these guys on the mound?  We can’t.  They’re all paper mismatches.  I mean, with the number of runs the Royals have scored (they currently lead the league), we should be leading the central.  But the starting pitching appears to be the lone anchor holding us down for the time being.

Can I get a little Duffy?  I little Montgomery?  I’m not picky, I’ll take either.  Or both.

Reheated Moose Tacos

OK, so Moose Tacos got off to a disappointing start in AAA for the second time in two years.  We kind of forget about how much he struggled after moving up last year, because he ended up on a tear, and eventually was named the minor leagues hitter of the year.  At the end of the day, the slug did return for him at AAA, but he never really recovered, in terms of OBP, ending up just north of .300 for his 236 PAs in AAA.

Apart from the four dongs he ripped, his 2011 April was borderline dreadful.  In 21 games, his line was .229/.304/.410.  What seemed unthinkable a few months ago came to pass—he got lapped by Eric Hosmer on the race to the major leagues.  Hos makes it up in one year less time (and counting) than Moose.

But at least for the small sample size of May so far, things appear to be turning up for Moose.  Through 8 games, he’s hitting .344/.436/.531 for the month.

The thing that’s interesting about what Moose is that he appears to be actively trying to be more patient at the plate.  Alas, he had a mere 8 walks in his 236 AAA appearances last year, and just 25 strikeouts.  That says he was being far to anxious about putting the ball into play.  Through just 132 PAs this year, he already has 13 walks.  Unfortunately, the strikeouts have increased, as well—he’s already up to 24.  But that’s probably a symptom of his appearances growing to counts he’s not used to getting into.  It’s pretty easy to put the ball into play at 0-0, 1-0, 0-1.  Once you start actively trying to work the count, it takes some adjustment time to learn how to hit with 2 strikes.

I, personally, look at these as positives.  His average currently sits at .261, but the OBP is a respectable .344—far beyond what he was able to do at AAA last season.  It’s a learning curve, but he’s (slightly) passing the test.

BTW….In his blog from last Friday, Rany mentioned talking in the not-to-distant past with one scout who made a comparison for both Hosmer and Moose.  Hosmer he said looked like a bigger and stronger version of Will Clark (sweet brown gravy!).  His comparison for Moose, on the other hand, wasn’t so glowing.

Moose, he said, looked like Shea Hillenbrand with more power.  That really stung when I first read it, seeing as how Hillenbrand’s promising career (a 2-time all-star in his first 5 seasons) was over after 7 seasons.  And there’s no one who can argue against the fact that Moose’s glove work has shown signs of being Shea-esque (sigh).

But if you think longer about it, if “Hillenbrand with more power” is a guarantee for Moose, I’m not sure I wouldn’t sign up to take it.  I mean, Hillenbrand isn’t out of the league right now because of his poor defense, or even for his stick, for that matter.  He’s out of the league because he’s a douche and a locker room cancer.  There are only so many times you can fight with your club, your manager and the world before the game is going to be tired of you.

But a guy who hits about .285/.325 and consistently launches 15 to 20 dongs a year (Hillenbrand) ought to be in the league.  KNOWING Moose’s problems for getting on base through a big chunk of his minor league career, would you NOT jump at a guarantee that he could go .285/.325?  Especially when that guarantee comes with that “more power” element?

As hyped as Moose has been, we are Royals’ fans, after all.  Would anyone really NOT jump on board if, for his 6 to 7 year career in Kansas City, we could be guaranteed a Moose line of .285/.325/.500 with an average of about 25 dongs a year?

This scout might have been sending out a back-handed complement, but I’d gladly stick my face in front of it for a guy that produces like that.  It’s better than anything we’ve produced in the past 20 years not named “Beltran.”

Is Gordon "fixed" or just finally healthy?

I know the popular thought is that Kevin Seitzer “fixed” Alex Gordon this off-season, and I’m not down-playing the hard work the two of them put in to get Alex to play the way he’s been playing the first month-plus of the season.  Alex was in a BAD PLACE last year, and he needed to be reminded of how good he is.

Nevertheless, I’ve been firmly in the camp that most of Alex’s problems stemmed from his lack of being able to stay healthy, and the shattered confidence that came from his poor play when he was unable to do any better.  It spiraled from there, but I’m convinced that Alex was well on his way to becoming an extremely productive player by the end of 2008.  Rany’s stats are in my court.

His blog from last night attempted to put the AMAZING Aprils that Gordon and Francoeur had into perspective, with regards to the rest of their careers.  It should be noted that he included Alex’ opening day 0-5 job on March 31 of this year as part of April, as apparently is tradition to do so.  So he ended up with a line of .339/.395/.541.

Rany noted that, due to injury, Alex has only had 70 or more plate appearances in 13 calendar months of his entire professional year.  In terms of calendar months, Alex’s April of 2011 is his best month ever.  HOWEVER, he also determined that it was NOT his best stretch over a similar amount of plate appearances.

Alex’s April of this year went .339/.395/.541, with 12 doubles, 2 triples and 2 Dongs, but uncharacteristically, with just 8 walks against 21 Ks. 

His BEST stretch over about the same period, though, was his last 133 plate appearances of the 2008 season.  For that stretch, he went .301/.400/.549 with 11 doubles, 1 triple and 5 dongs.  During that stretch he had 20 walks against 25 Ks. 

If it’s a question of which of those Alex Gordon’s you’d rather have, you’d clearly take either, BUT would probably lean towards the one who’s walking at a nearly one-to-one ratio with his strikeouts, AND is hitting dongs at a rate of 2.5 to 1 over the 2011 version.

BUT the bigger point is that this was how Gordon finished up his last relatively healthy season (he did miss 3 weeks in the middle of that stretch in 2008, but it didn’t affect his head to a significant degree).  He was WELL on his way to becoming what we thought he could be.  But in the very first game of 2009, he suffered a devastating hip injury, and he was never the same again.  Ditto, to some degree, with 2010, only with a hand injury that threw him off and caused him to lose heart (at least at the Major League level, anyway).

Again, I don’t want to downplay what Seitz has done for him.  But the truth is that a healthy Alex Gordon was going to be a productive Alex Gordon.  I’m glad we’re seeing that play out now.